Abu Dhabi Talks Begin With High Stakes and Low Expectations

Negotiations to end the war in Ukraine begin on November 10 in Abu Dhabi, with both sides entering talks against a backdrop of skepticism and shifting political dynamics. The first trilateral meeting since the conflict with Iran drew attention is scheduled to last two days, bringing together representatives from the United States, Ukraine, and Russia.

President Donald Trump recently told CBS 60 Minutes that a deal is imminent and the war will end soon. However, analysts caution that immediate breakthroughs are unlikely. Sam Greene, a professor at King's College London, noted that Vladimir Putin has historically used negotiations to buy time rather than to make concessions. Greene argued that for the Russian leader, talks may serve to win the war rather than simply stop it.

The status of the Donbas region remains a primary point of contention. Moscow considers full control of the Donetsk region a prerequisite for peace, not a topic for discussion. The Kremlin has stated that if diplomacy fails to secure this territory, it will continue to capture it by force. Trump suggested Ukraine might accept a different territorial shape, implying potential losses, though he did not specify the extent. Ukraine maintains it will not cede defended land, citing the remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk as a critical defensive barrier.

The U.S. delegation, led by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, is also pushing a broader framework for European security. Kushner described the need for a wider architecture that respects national sovereignty. This proposal has raised concerns in Kyiv and Brussels, with critics worrying that Europe could be sidelined in decisions affecting its own defense. The plan echoes long-standing Russian demands for influence over European affairs.

Domestic U.S. politics have also shaped the timing of the talks. One week before the Abu Dhabi meeting, Democrats gained control of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections. Although the new Congress will not be seated until January 3, the White House is moving quickly to secure an agreement before the shift in power. This timeline may limit the U.S. ability to pressure Ukraine for major concessions, especially as Ukraine continues to report successes in strikes on Russian infrastructure.

Winter is expected to increase pressure on Ukraine, with analysts predicting Russia will intensify attacks on power plants and vital infrastructure. Mark Galeotti, a British-based analyst, said Putin is likely to use the winter months to hammer Ukraine, waiting until spring to lock in gains. Sam Greene added that Moscow is counting on a difficult winter for Ukrainians and is watching upcoming elections in France and Germany that could weaken European support for Kyiv.

The composition of the Russian delegation also fuels doubts about the talks' potential. Vladimir Medinsky, a Kremlin aide and historian, will lead the Russian team. Medinsky was instrumental in drafting a 2021 article outlining Putin’s views on Ukraine and previously led Moscow’s delegation in the February talks in Geneva, which ended without progress. Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat, said sending Medinsky suggests Russia is not prepared for serious negotiations.