California Schools Brace for 710,000 Student Loss by 2035
Federal immigration enforcement and long-term demographic shifts are accelerating a national decline in public school enrollment.
By Sarah Reynolds ·
Public school enrollment in California is projected to drop by 710,000 students over the next decade if current fertility and migration trends continue, according to a study released in August by state officials.
The projection coincides with a broader national trend where the population of children under age 18 fell by roughly 2.1 million between 2010 and 2025. U.S. Department of Education data shows that nationwide public school enrollment peaked in 2019 and decreased by approximately 1.5 million students by the 2024 school year.
Federal immigration policy has intensified these losses. The Migration Policy Institute reported that 1.9 million people left the United States during the first 18 months of the current administration. Federal officials weakened restrictions that previously limited ICE operations near public schools, a change that board member Kelly Gonez of the Los Angeles Unified School District said caused many families to hide.
Gonez noted that the district predicted a 2 percent enrollment drop but experienced a decline of double that amount. The Los Angeles district, the second largest in the country, has lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades. It is now facing its second consecutive year with a 4 percent enrollment decline.
In response, the district announced a citywide effort in September to identify buildings and campuses for closure. Gonez stated that finding a sustainable path to keep campuses open is difficult when the district is roughly half the size of its student population from 20 years ago.
The impact is visible in specific regions. Texas lost more than 76,000 students statewide last year, with the majority of the drop occurring among Hispanic children and children of immigrant families. In Florida, the Miami-Dade and Broward County districts lost roughly 30,000 children combined in a single year following the revocation of temporary protected status for Haitian refugees in July.
Stanford education policy economist Thomas Dee said that communities are confronting painful decisions about closing schools. He noted that large-scale deportations cause rapid changes in areas with large immigrant communities. A June report by Bellwether and WestEd estimated that falling enrollment will result in a loss of $11 billion a year in public school funding.
