Breaking: PJM grid strain reveals new winter pattern
Repeated emergency orders this fall signal a shift in how the regional power grid handles seasonal maintenance and rising data center demand.
By Sarah Reynolds ·
The recent power grid emergency in the PJM region was not an isolated incident but part of a developing pattern of strain during the fall transition. Energy Secretary Chris Wright issued an order on Sunday, October 12, 2026, granting PJM Interconnection temporary emergency authority to keep the grid stable from October 13 through October 16. This federal intervention followed similar measures taken during two unseasonably warm periods in September, specifically August 31 to September 4 and September 15 to 18. In each case, PJM deployed Demand Response programs and utilized emergency orders to allow eligible resources to operate beyond normal limits. The recurrence of these actions highlights a changing reality for the regional electricity system as it moves toward winter.
For local readers, the October order meant that federal officials and PJM acted to prevent potential interruptions rather than to announce scheduled blackouts. No blackouts occurred, and no mandatory conservation orders were issued. Households and businesses in the 13 states and the District of Columbia covered by the order continued daily electricity use with no required action. The order allowed PJM to direct generators to run in excess of their operating permits and to call on data centers and other large users to switch to backup generation if necessary. This authority was exercised under section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to ensure stability during a period of high risk.
A Maximum Generation Alert, issued on October 12, signaled to transmission and generation owners that conditions would be tight. This alert permitted them to defer or cancel equipment maintenance and testing. It also informed neighboring grid operators that exports from PJM might be curtailed. PJM also called on Demand Response, which pays customers who sign up in advance to reduce electricity use when the grid is stressed. These measures were designed to manage the balance between supply and demand without disrupting normal service for typical residential or commercial customers.
The strain resulted from a collision between unusually warm October weather and the fall shoulder season. During this period, generator and transmission owners take equipment offline for maintenance and upgrades ahead of winter. Most scheduled outages are prohibited in summer, so the shoulder season sees a high volume of planned downtime. Paul Dajewski, PJM’s senior manager for dispatch, noted that this volume of outages is typical for the shoulder season. However, the timing of the weather events created a specific challenge. After sunset on those days, PJM had to cover net load as solar output fell faster than electricity use, a gap that proved difficult to manage without emergency authority.
PJM’s operations updates from October 9 through October 16 detailed the escalating steps taken to manage the grid. On October 9, PJM issued its first ever Capacity Advisory for October 12 and 13, a procedure endorsed in June 2026 for approaching capacity shortfalls. The load forecast was about 102,000 megawatts on Monday and 104,000 megawatts on Tuesday, against scheduled generation outages of about 70,000 megawatts. On October 12, PJM issued a Maximum Generation Alert and a Load Management Alert for October 13, forecasting demand of approximately 111,500 megawatts or higher. Transmission limits also played a role, bottling generation in congested zones in Washington D.C., Maryland, and Virginia.
The pattern continues with a Capacity Advisory issued on October 16 for Monday, October 19, with a load forecast of about 94,573 megawatts against expected generation outages of about 72,000 megawatts. This ongoing series of advisories and alerts indicates that the grid is operating with tighter margins than in previous years. The Department of Energy’s involvement underscores the significance of these recurring shortfalls during the transition to winter. PJM coordinates wholesale electricity across Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia, serving about 67 million people.
PJM states that the shoulder-season reprieve is no longer what it used to be. Most of the new, rapidly growing demand comes from data centers and other energy-intensive large-load customers. Their consumption does not fall with the weather, representing a 12-month, 24/7 phenomenon. This expanding demand is outpacing new transmission and electricity supply coming onto the system. Unseasonably hot or cold weather now arrives outside the traditional peak seasons, adding complexity to grid management.
According to PJM’s Winter Outlook released on November 5, 2026, the region expects sufficient resources to reliably meet demand this winter under expected conditions. PJM anticipates 182,426 megawatts of operational capacity to serve a forecast winter peak of approximately 147,500 megawatts, plus about 3,200 megawatts of average exports. That peak would set a new winter record if reached. Reliable winter operations depend on strong generator performance during extreme cold, especially in the BGE, Pepco, and Dominion zones. Michael Bryson, PJM’s senior vice president of operations, said the goal is to coordinate operations proactively to perform at high levels when consumers need energy the most.
