Inside information now drives $8 billion North Carolina betting economy
State tax revenue from prediction markets has grown as bettors wager on events they may influence, from wildfires to military operations.
By Matthew Collins ·
North Carolina residents wagered approximately $8 billion on sports during the 2026 fiscal year, a figure that underscores the state's deep engagement with prediction markets. This volume of betting occurs while the state collects tax revenue from these platforms, a regulatory approach that distinguishes it from competitors in New York, Illinois, and Kentucky.
The growth of these markets has coincided with a rise in disputes over insider information. Former U.S. Rep. George Santos became the first individual to receive a lifetime ban from the platform Kalshi in August. The ban followed his wager that he would not attend the State of the Union address. He collected the payout after staying home, having previously told followers he planned to attend.
Climate scientist Kaitlyn Trudeau noted that financial incentives now exist for events that are easy to start. She commented on the Los Angeles wildfires that occurred in January, where bettors used the app Polymarket to wager on acreage consumed and containment timelines. The potential for bettors to influence outcomes has expanded to include military operations.
A U.S. Special Forces soldier in North Carolina faced charges for using classified information to bet on the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors stated that the soldier helped plan and execute the operation. His long-shot bet reportedly yielded more than $400,000.
A second service member reportedly earned $1 million from bets on military actions in Iran and Venezuela. Investigators are examining whether that individual used inside information or participated in the actions themselves. These cases have prompted scrutiny of how much control bettors hold over the events they wager on.
While other states have sued prediction platforms, alleging unlicensed gambling, North Carolina adopted a tax-based model earlier this year. The state imposes taxes on all prediction markets, generating revenue from the betting activity. This strategy has kept the markets active in the state despite legal challenges elsewhere.
Betting options in North Carolina extend beyond major political events. Residents can wager on reality television outcomes, Time magazine's Person of the Year selection, and the results of upcoming midterm elections. The variety of available markets includes specific weather events and local occurrences.
Source: Raleigh Magazine
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