Moderate Democrats Outpaced Left-Wing Rivals
2026 election data shows moderate candidates gained more ground than their progressive counterparts in swing districts and states.
By Amina Yusuf ·
The 2026 midterm elections revealed a distinct performance gap between moderate and progressive Democrats in competitive areas. In key Senate races, the four candidates most aligned with the party's left flank trailed the national average by a wide margin. These candidates included Maine Senator-elect Troy Jackson, Minnesota Senator-elect Peggy Flanagan, Michigan Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed, and Florida candidate Angie Nixon. All four had the endorsement of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
Jackson, who won his seat, underperformed Kamala Harris's 2024 margin by half a point. Flanagan exceeded Harris's numbers by 5.9 points, while El-Sayed beat them by 8.4 points. Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, exceeded Harris's margin by 10.2 points but lost the general election by approximately three points. The average Democratic Senate candidate in key races outperformed Harris's 2024 results by 16 points.
Moderate candidates recorded the highest over-performances in these same states. North Carolina Senator-elect Roy Cooper beat Harris's margin by 23.2 points. Mississippi Senate candidate Scott Colom is currently ahead by 23.1 points, potentially unseating Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Other high performers included Kansas Senator-elect Adam Hamilton, who gained 21.1 points, and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, who gained 20.2 points. Iowa Senator-elect Josh Turek added 17.2 points to the baseline.
House results displayed a similar pattern, though with less variance. Pollster G. Elliott Morris of Strength In Numbers calculated that members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus overperformed Harris by an average of 12.2 points. In contrast, members of the New Democrat Coalition averaged 14.1 points, and Blue Dog Democrats averaged 15.4 points. A small sample of seven DSA candidates averaged 16.5 points, but they ran primarily in deep blue districts.
In swing districts, the gap widened. Michigan Representative-elect William Lawrence, who left the DSA during his general campaign, won his seat by a narrow margin. He overperformed Harris by only 4.3 points, one of the lowest margins in the House. In Maine's 2nd District, Sanders-backed Matt Dunlap overperformed Harris by 8.1 points and lost. This district was previously held by moderate Representative Jared Golden in less favorable environments.
A few left-wing candidates in red districts achieved notable margins despite losses. Tennessee Democrat Justin J. Pearson lost by one point in a district Trump carried by 21 points. However, Pearson's result was an outlier. Most progressive candidates in battleground areas performed on par with or slightly below their moderate counterparts, suggesting that moderate nominees secured larger gains in competitive races.
