US employers likely added 65,000 jobs in October

The U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to release data on Friday showing that employers likely added 65,000 jobs in October. This figure represents a recovery from a weaker hiring month in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, according to a survey of forecasters conducted by the data firm FactSet.

The report arrives three days after voters defeated President Donald Trump and his Republican Party in the midterm elections. Democrats now hold full control of the U.S. Congress. Many voters expressed frustration with the economy and the high cost of living during the campaign.

The economy has shown resilience despite several shocks. Trump’s double-digit taxes on imports and the war with Iran have driven gasoline prices above $4 per gallon. These factors have placed pressure on family budgets. Despite these challenges, gross domestic product advanced at a 3.4% annual pace from July through September. This growth was driven by strong consumer spending and increased investment in artificial intelligence.

Hiring this year has been solid but unspectacular. Employers added an average of 68,000 jobs per month so far this year. This includes a disappointing 29,000 jobs added in September. This pace is modest by historic standards but marks an improvement over 2025. In 2025, monthly job creation averaged 9,700, the weakest performance outside of a recession since 2002. High interest rates and unpredictable trade policies discouraged hiring last year.

Current hiring levels remain well below the average of 166,000 monthly jobs created in 2023 and 2024. They are also far lower than the 491,000 jobs added per month during the 2021-2022 hiring boom following COVID-19 lockdowns. Economists describe the current environment as one with low firing and low hiring. Employers are reluctant to let go of existing workers but are not in a hurry to hire new ones. This situation makes it difficult for young people entering the workforce or those who have lost jobs to find work.

The number of new jobs required to keep the unemployment rate stable has decreased. In late 2023, this break-even point was around 166,000 new jobs per month. It is now just over 5,000, according to an estimate by Yale University’s Budget Lab. This shift is attributed to baby boomer retirements and Trump’s immigration crackdown, which have reduced the number of people competing for work.

Rising prices have reduced the purchasing power of many Americans. After adjusting for inflation, average hourly earnings fell 0.7% in September. This marks the sixth straight year-over-year drop in real wages. This trend offers one explanation for the voter dissatisfaction seen in the recent elections.