Israel Election: No Clear Winner as Coalition Talks Loom

No party or bloc in Israel secured a majority in Tuesday's election, leaving the country without a clear mandate and setting the stage for weeks of coalition negotiations.

Final results are expected by Thursday evening or Friday. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition, led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, currently holds the 61 seats required to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset.

Voter turnout reached 77%, the highest level since 1999. Likud, Netanyahu’s party, received the most votes overall but lost support compared to the 2022 election. Support for far-right allies in Netanyahu’s current coalition declined, pushing his bloc below the majority threshold according to partial tallies.

Eisenkot’s party, Yashar, also lacks a path to power without partners. The election was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu, though Israelis vote for parties rather than individual leaders.

Arab-led parties emerged as clear beneficiaries of the vote. Their representation is expected to increase substantially if current projections hold. Eisenkot has indicated he might partner with them if they recognize Hamas as an extremist group, a condition some of his likely Jewish allies have rejected.

Netanyahu has stated he will not form a government that relies on Arab parties. His camp has asked the elections committee to investigate allegations that the vote was stolen. Likud has not provided evidence to support this claim.

The elections committee separately requested that the Shin Bet intelligence service investigate allegations of foreign interference. The letter did not name specific parties, but Netanyahu cited the inquiry to argue against cooperation with Arab-led groups. Qatar denied funding activities intended to influence the outcome, a denial that follows sharp statements from the Gulf state.

The committee has asked for findings within the week. Israeli law requires the certification of election results by Nov. 4. If multiple attempts to form a government fail, new elections could be held in early 2027.

The campaign was dominated by the trauma of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 were abducted. Candidates focused on security failures rather than the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Netanyahu has rejected an investigation into the day's events, while some of his opponents have vowed to establish a commission of inquiry if they take power.

The election also highlighted deep divisions over military service exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox population. These exemptions have become contentious during three years of wars that have killed nearly 1,000 soldiers and reservists. Eisenkot, who lost a son in Gaza, has promised to end the exemptions, a move supported by some voters but opposed by the ultra-Orthodox parties that have long backed Netanyahu.