Haredi parties hold 14 seats that decide Israel's next government

Haredi parties control the outcome of Israel's next government formation.

President Isaac Herzog will begin official consultations with party leaders on Wednesday. Before those talks start, Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman announced on Monday that he supports Gadi Eisenkot for prime minister. Liberman also stated that his party will not back a minority government that relies on Arab party support.

Liberman's position limits the options available to Eisenkot. The central question now is whether Shas and United Torah Judaism will join a government led by Eisenkot. Both parties have avoided committing to a side in recent briefings. Their representatives have said that their rabbinical leadership will make the final decision.

Rabbis Dov Landau and Moshe Hillel Hirsch are expected to return from abroad around the time consultations begin at the President's Residence. Political assessments suggest that United Torah Judaism may not recommend either Netanyahu or Eisenkot initially. This strategy would preserve room for maneuver in later negotiations.

Most political sources believe Eisenkot will be the first candidate tasked with forming a government. To secure the haredi seats, Eisenkot may offer generous terms on the military enlistment of yeshiva students and budget allocations. If the haredi parties agree to join, Yisrael Beytenu could also enter the coalition.

A complication involves the role of Liberman. He has previously served as defense, finance, and foreign minister. Observers believe he may demand a rotation agreement for the premiership with Eisenkot. Such a demand could create tension with Naftali Bennett. Bennett's party won 12 Knesset seats, while Liberman's party holds seven. Bennett may object to Liberman serving as prime minister in a rotation while Bennett takes a ministerial position.

Haredi sources describe their current position as an exceptional opportunity because both political blocs need their support. One haredi source said, "It is better for everyone to remain in suspense and uncertainty, and for each side to think that we have already reached an agreement with the other side." However, other figures in the haredi establishment are less optimistic about joining a left-led government.

Shas chairman Arye Deri has previously expressed reluctance to repeat the scenario where haredi parties joined Yitzhak Rabin's government during the Oslo Accords period. The party continues to emphasize its alignment with the Right. If the haredi parties decline to join an Eisenkot-led government, the possibility of a minority government dependent on Arab party support returns to the debate. However, Liberman has ruled out such a arrangement. If Eisenkot fails to form a coalition, the mandate may pass to Benjamin Netanyahu. Some in Netanyahu's circle believe another election would be a favorable outcome, assuming high Arab voter turnout does not repeat. If the process reaches the 21-day period where the Knesset can nominate a candidate, a majority of 61 MKs could assign the task to an agreed-upon candidate, potentially leading to a unity government.