Trump faces a difficult choice on Iran after Republicans lose Congress
With Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress for the first time since 2023, the president has roughly two months to decide how to end the conflict before legislative power shifts.
By Matthew Collins ·
President Donald Trump campaigned on the promise that the war with Iran would conclude shortly after the November midterm elections. That deadline arrived with a political setback. Republicans lost control of both the House and Senate in the November 4 vote, handing legislative power to the Democrats.
Vice President JD Vance attributed the Republican defeat directly to the ongoing conflict. He posted on X that the reason for the loss was the war. Trump agreed with this assessment, calling it largely true. He stated he would make the same decision again because Iran could not be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon.
The midterm result changes the political landscape for the administration. Shayan Samii, a national-security expert, noted that Democrats do not take full control immediately. Trump has about two months to act without facing electoral consequences. After that, a Democratic Congress can use budget controls and committee subpoenas to pressure the White House.
Samii explained that a president can justify military action on national-security grounds. Any bill attempting to curb the war would require Trump’s signature or a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override a veto. This high threshold suggests the new Congress may struggle to force a specific military strategy quickly.
One option is a full resumption of large-scale strikes. Trump has hinted at this path, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly pushed for it. Such a campaign would likely target bridges, rail lines, and power infrastructure, similar to strikes in April. Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, has only seen attacks on military sites so far. Hitting its energy infrastructure would be a new step, though a naval blockade has already reduced Iranian oil exports to near zero.
Shahin Modarres, an Iranian security expert, expects the US to move to this next phase. He described a progression from deterrence to economic pressure, and now to forcing capitulation. Targets would include infrastructure, the energy sector, and remaining nuclear sites like the Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz. The goal would be to push the Islamic republic toward surrender, potentially allowing a subset of current leaders to take control temporarily.
Another possibility is a single, high-impact strike followed by an exit. Reports in late October suggested the administration warned regional allies of a short, intense campaign. A strike on Pickaxe Mountain could serve as this final blow. Parts of that site are buried 80 to 100 meters underground, making verification of destruction difficult. Iran has warned that bombing the mountain would renew the war across the region, but the US might declare the nuclear program damaged and seek a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
A third path involves maintaining the current status quo, which includes defensive strikes and a naval blockade. This approach is unstable. Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said the country needs to move past this no-war, no-peace scenario. Markets appear to favor a diplomatic interim deal. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel on November 4, suggesting investors expect a pause in fighting. Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets seven conditions, including lifting the blockade and easing sanctions.
Several factors could disrupt these scenarios. Israel might act alone if it believes the US is drifting toward a deal it opposes. Inside Iran, hard-line factions previously undermined the June memorandum of understanding by attacking shipping. Tehran may view the Democratic victory as a sign of victory, encouraging it to raise its price. When asked on November 4 when the war would end, Trump replied, Whenever I want it to.
