Trump Loses Key Allies as Left-Wing Leaders Win in Serbia and Brazil

President Donald Trump lost a loyal European ally and faced a return to power for a rival in Brazil following elections held in both countries this week. The defeats of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and the victory of incumbent Brazilian President Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva occurred just days before US voters head to the polls for congressional midterms on November 3.

Vucic, who ruled Serbia with an authoritarian style since 2017, resigned from the presidency to run for prime minister. He lost that race to the Student List, a left-wing coalition. Trump had cultivated a close relationship with Vucic, whose son, Donald Trump Jr., visited Belgrade twice in the past year. The US Conservative Political Action Conference had also planned a November meeting in Belgrade with Vucic as a keynote speaker, a schedule that may now be in flux.

The alliance between the two leaders was built on shared political instincts and a warmer stance toward Russia than typical for European leaders. Vucic declined to join EU sanctions against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, and Serbian state media maintained a positive image of Moscow. With Vucic no longer in top executive power, Trump loses a key supporter in Europe who aligned with his recent diplomatic overtures to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In Brazil, Lula won re-election against Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Trump’s camp had expected Flavio Bolsonaro to win. After the loss, Flavio Bolsonaro, who is under investigation for corruption and money laundering, fled to Florida. The US State Department granted him and his family entry visas despite the pending legal cases.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro refused to concede the defeat, citing irregularities in the vote. Trump echoed this sentiment on Monday, stating that the election 'looked like another rigged election, frankly.' He added that elections must be indisputable and that the process 'looked very bad to me.' This mirrors Trump’s own ongoing claims that the 2020 US election was stolen.

Lawrence J. Haas, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, noted that Trump was a strong supporter of both Jair Bolsonaro and his son. Haas said Trump was unhappy about the defeat and does not feel warmly toward Lula. He expects relations between the two nations to remain cool at best.

The outcomes in Serbia and Brazil do not directly impact the US midterm elections, according to Haas. He said Americans will vote based on domestic issues and their feelings about the party in power. However, the political landscape for Trump is challenging. He currently holds the lowest approval rating of any president on the eve of a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1946.

Public concern over affordability and opposition to the US-Iran war are major factors in the upcoming vote. Trump launched the war against Iran in February this year alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu’s political position is also uncertain, as his right-wing bloc leads in Israeli elections but has lost its majority. Coalition negotiations are expected to be difficult.

The US remains Israel’s most important partner, and Israel is a key regional ally for the US. If Netanyahu remains in power, the bilateral relationship is likely to stay largely unchanged. For now, Trump’s international network has contracted, leaving him with fewer close allies in Europe and the Americas as the US midterms approach.