Opposition Win in Serbia Puts Foreign Policy Review on Hold

Serbia's new government will start by repairing its own institutions rather than changing course abroad, according to analysts assessing Sunday's election result. The opposition Student List won a decisive victory, ending 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party. Presidential elections are scheduled for December.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, said relations with neighbors will not be addressed immediately. He said the incoming authorities must first deal with a system that has "captured all democratic institutions", alongside problems in the judiciary, prosecution service, police and media sector. Popov described this as "tidying up at home" before "solving problems with the neighbours".

Regional ties have been strained during Vucic's tenure. Popov said relations with Croatia are "not frozen" but also not what they should be between neighbors, and are marked by frequent sharp words. Vucic recently accused Zagreb of organizing a "colour revolution" during mass protests in Serbia. Popov also said relations with Montenegro are disrupted and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved.

Popov said ties between Vucic's party and Croatia's ruling Croatian Democratic Union deteriorated as the two sides clashed. "Zagreb would fire a poisoned arrow at Serbia and that gave Belgrade an argument to retaliate," he said, describing a system that "functioned on the production of internal and external enemies". Behind the public hostility, he said, Belgrade backed Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik while Zagreb favored a third entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Popov said a new government led by experts and civic leaders could work toward stabilizing the region and revive Serbia's hopes of joining the European Union. "The previous government sabotaged EU integration and the EU will not accept a country without good neighbourly relations. The new government's task will be to repair those damaged ties," he said.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London, said foreign policy will change less than other areas of Serbian policy. "Many international and domestic structures that shape Serbian foreign policy will remain in place," he said. He said Moscow never fully trusted Vucic but viewed him as "the devil they knew". Russian influence will decline as tabloid coverage under Vucic ends and intelligence cooperation is downgraded, he said, but he does not expect the new government to adopt a hawkish stance. "The country still needs preferential gas prices, the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved and parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West," Vuksanovic said. He added that the new government "will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance toward Moscow". On Ukraine, he said Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, while ammunition deliveries remain an open question. The opposition viewed Vucic's weapons sales to Kyiv as a way to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said Serbia's partnership with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, marked by arms trade and technology exchanges, will continue but recent agreements will face review. "The new government has no reason to abandon cooperation with Israel, but it will certainly re-examine newly concluded contracts, primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia," Jaksic said. He noted that Netanyahu's government lost another authoritarian, nationalist ally in Europe after Viktor Orban's removal in Hungary earlier this year, and that Israel's stance toward Belgrade depends on the outcome of Israel's own elections.

Jaksic also said the policy of "sitting on multiple chairs," which he said brought Serbia more harm than good, will be re-evaluated, and that it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. He said foreign policy will inevitably be reviewed. All three analysts said the period ahead will focus on internal reform rather than sudden shifts in international alignment. Serbia's presidential elections are set for December.