Holland Latinos Decide Michigan House Race

The 86th State House District in Holland, Michigan, has elected Republicans for over 30 years, but the November 3 general election threatens to break that streak. The race is now a toss-up as the area's growing Latino population emerges as a decisive voting bloc. This shift challenges the long-standing political dominance of the region, which has historically favored the party in power at the state level.

Holland was once defined by its Dutch immigrant community, but the district now contains one of Michigan's most concentrated Latino populations. Eric Gonzalez Juenke, an associate professor of political science at Michigan State University, noted that a younger Latino cohort is reshaping the electorate as the older Dutch generation declines. He stated that this demographic change is the primary mechanism for flipping seats. Latino voters have historically supported Democrats, though that margin has narrowed since 2018. Pew Research Center data shows Latinos backed Democrats by 21 percentage points in 2022, a drop of more than 20 points from the 2018 cycle.

Incumbent Republican Nancy DeBoer won the seat in the last election by roughly 12 percentage points. She leverages strong name recognition from her time as Holland mayor. Her Democratic challenger, Joseph McClusky, is gaining ground by campaigning on lowering the cost of living and expanding healthcare access. Both candidates are actively reaching voters in English and Spanish, a strategy Juenke expects will become standard across the state within the next decade.

Local voters cite the economy as their top concern. Marilyn Sierra, a 53-year-old factory worker from Puerto Rico who has lived in Holland for 14 years, said she is considering voting for the Democratic Party for the first time. She attributed this shift to rising grocery and gas prices. Kimberly Maldonado, a 20-year-old aspiring physician assistant, plans to vote Democrat generally but is still researching the local House race. She expressed concern about the need for more low-cost healthcare clinics in the area. Alfonso Barajas, a 64-year-old lifelong Democrat, is motivated by federal immigration policies. He described current conditions as the worst he has experienced in his life.

The 2024 presidential exit polls showed a majority of Michigan Latinos voted for Donald Trump, but a Pew survey of over 700 registered Latino voters indicates a different dynamic for the midterms. The majority of those surveyed view their upcoming vote as a rejection of the president, even though he is not on the ballot. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the Michigan state House. With more seats up for election than usual in November, the outcome in Holland will be a key indicator of how Latino voters split between the candidates.

Latinos are the second-largest voting group in the United States after white voters, who make up 61% of eligible voters. Since 2006, Latinos have been the fastest-growing voting bloc in the country. Approximately 1 million U.S.-born Latinos turn 18 and become eligible to vote each year. Juenke noted that this group is increasingly open to changing its voting patterns if political parties engage with them effectively.