Midterm 2026: How national swings shape Bellingham's economy and oversight

Voters in Bellingham, Marysville, and Lake Stevens are heading to the polls today to cast ballots in a midterm election that will define the balance of power in Washington, D.C. for the next two years. While Washington state does not have a U.S. Senate or governor race on the ballot this year, every U.S. House seat in the state is up for election, alongside state legislative races, judicial elections, and local measures. According to Ballotpedia, Washington conducts its elections largely by mail, and polls close at 8 p.m. today. Residents can find their specific polling place at vote.gov or their local election office, with the rule that anyone in line when polls close is entitled to vote.

The national stakes are high as this election serves as a referendum on the second term of President Donald Trump. The Associated Press reports that voters are struggling with high prices and anger over an unpopular war with Iran. With all 435 U.S. House seats and 35 Senate seats on the line, the results will determine who holds the gavel in Congress for the remainder of the current presidential term. Republicans currently hold a majority in both chambers, but the Associated Press notes that one or two seats could tip either chamber in either direction. This close margin means that the voting patterns in swing districts will have a disproportionate impact on the nation's legislative agenda.

For Bellingham and its surrounding communities, the outcome carries direct economic weight. The Associated Press notes that about seven in ten U.S. adults say the country is heading in the wrong direction, with most blaming the president for high prices. If Democrats gain control of at least one chamber of Congress, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who would be the first Black speaker if Democrats win the House, has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight. This oversight role is critical for local economies, as federal budgets and regulatory decisions influence everything from infrastructure projects in Whatcom County to the cost of goods for local businesses.

The election also determines the level of congressional oversight over the executive branch during Trump's final two years. Currently, Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and 218 House seats. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to secure majorities in both chambers. According to Ballotpedia, 46 House districts are considered battlegrounds, including 21 districts currently held by Democrats that voted for Trump in 2024. The Associated Press notes that if Democrats win even one chamber, they will have the power to launch inquiries into executive actions, including the administration's handling of the economy and foreign policy. This potential shift in power is a key factor in how local leaders in Bellingham view the upcoming election results.

In Washington state, voters are also deciding on several statewide ballot measures that will impact the local economy. Initiative 645 proposes to repeal the tax on household income over one million dollars and prohibit state and local taxes on individual income. This measure has drawn significant attention from business leaders and residents in the Bellingham area who are concerned about the state's fiscal health. Additionally, Initiative 1 and Initiative 638 address public education governance and athletics, topics that affect local schools in Bellingham, Marysville, and Lake Stevens. The Associated Press notes that the 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history, with Republican committees outspending Democratic ones at the committee level, though Democrats have outraised their opponents at the candidate level.

The mood among voters is mixed, with many citing economic strain as a primary motivator. The Associated Press quotes voter James Moore, a librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, who stated that he is paying more for taxes, healthcare, and everything else. This sentiment is shared by many in the Pacific Northwest, where housing and grocery costs have risen in recent years. On the other hand, RNC Chairman Joe Gruters emphasized that everything depends on turnout, stating that if Republicans turn out their voters, they will win. The Associated Press reports that more than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote of four years ago in many closely watched states. This high level of early participation suggests a deeply engaged electorate that is closely monitoring the economic and political landscape.

The election also has implications for the 2028 presidential race. A strong Democratic night could boost potential candidates such as Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, while a Republican victory could solidify the path for Vice President JD Vance. The Associated Press notes that Republicans have tried to beat the midterm pattern, where a president's party almost always loses seats, by using new congressional maps. However, the AP warns that new districts in states like Florida and Texas may not vote as drawn. For Bellingham residents, this national dynamic is not just an abstract concept but a decisive factor in the stability of the political environment that affects local funding and policy.

As polls open this morning, the focus in Whatcom County is on the local and state races that will shape the immediate future of the region. Voters in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes parts of the Bellingham area, are choosing between incumbent Suzan DelBene and her Republican opponent. The Associated Press notes that DelBene, as the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is a key figure in the national fight for House control. Her race is seen as a bellwether for Democratic strength in the state. In the state legislature, voters are selecting members who will work with the governor to shape state budgets and policies that directly impact Bellingham's growth and development.