What a House shift means for Bellingham and the final two years of the Trump term

In Bellingham, Marysville, and Lake Stevens, polls close at 8 p.m. today, though Washington conducts its elections largely by mail. Residents are casting ballots for every U.S. House seat in the state, as well as for state and local offices. There is no U.S. Senate or governor election in Washington this year, but the results here feed into the national tally that will determine who controls Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term.

According to Ballotpedia, the midterms will decide the balance of power in both chambers of the federal government. Republicans currently hold 218 House seats and 53 Senate seats. Democrats need a net gain of three House districts and four Senate seats to take control of either chamber. The Associated Press describes the election as a referendum on the president's performance, with many voters citing high prices and an unpopular war with Iran as key motivators.

If Democrats seize the House, House Leader Hakeem Jeffries would become the first Black speaker. He has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight investigations. A strong Democratic performance would also bolster the 2028 presidential paths of Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, while potentially complicating the path for Vice President JD Vance. Conversely, if Republicans hold the House, they can continue the legislative agenda of the current administration without the threat of impeachment proceedings from the lower chamber.

The Associated Press reports that 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance, while 25 percent approve of his handling of the economy. About seven in ten voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states. In Bellingham, voters are deciding on local measures and state legislators, but the national mood is heavily influenced by economic strain and the president's popularity ratings.

Republicans were bracing to lose the House and fighting to hold the Senate, with the Associated Press noting that one or two seats could tip either chamber. Democrats are described as cautiously optimistic. The Associated Press notes that 60 House incumbents did not run again, including 23 Democrats and 37 Republicans. Ballotpedia counts 46 battleground districts, with 25 held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. In Washington, every House seat is on the ballot, including the 3rd Congressional District, which is a notable race this cycle.

In the Senate, 35 seats are up for election. Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 45, plus two independents. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. Key battlegrounds include Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The Associated Press highlights the race in Maine, where Senator Susan Collins is facing Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson, as economic strain and tariffs have made the state competitive.

The Associated Press also notes that the 2026 elections will likely be the most expensive in history. Republican committees outraised and outspent Democratic committees, helped by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats outraised their opponents. The Associated Press analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024. This spending pattern reflects the strategy to hold the Senate while accepting potential losses in the House.

Voters in Washington state are also weighing statewide ballot measures. Initiative 645 seeks to repeal the tax on household income over $1 million and prohibit state and local taxes on individual income. Initiative 1 relates to parental rights in public education. Initiative 638 addresses athletics in schools. These measures, along with local elections in Whatcom County, provide a local lens on the broader national issues of taxation and governance that are driving voter turnout today.

The Associated Press notes that a federal judge temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting, a move critics say risks disenfranchising eligible voters. The U.S. Postal Service has added hours and staff to ensure mail ballots are counted on time. In Bellingham, where mail voting is the norm, the focus is on the timely processing of ballots. The Associated Press notes that the Justice Department has threatened to prosecute local election officials, a move that has heightened concerns about interference in the voting process.

The Associated Press quotes RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, who said, "Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for." DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene, a Bellingham native, said, "The American people are angry. They want change." These statements reflect the high stakes of the day for both parties. The outcome will determine whether the final two years of the Trump administration are marked by unified government or divided control, with significant implications for investigations, nominations, and the 2028 race.

As polls close at 8 p.m. in Washington, voters in Bellingham and across the state are making their final decisions. The results will shape the legislative agenda for the next two years, including the potential for new investigations and the confirmation of presidential nominees. The Associated Press notes that Wall Street is watching for more than control of Congress, as results could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. The local vote in Whatcom County is part of a national effort to decide the direction of the country in the latter half of the Trump term.