Netanyahu bloc falls short of 61 seats after British settlement sanctions

Exit polls from Israel’s October 27 election indicated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc failed to secure the 61 seats required for a government majority. Despite missing the threshold for independent rule, the bloc polled more votes than the opposition change bloc. The results complicate the narrative surrounding new sanctions imposed by Britain and allies weeks before the vote.

British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced the measures on September 8, less than six weeks before Election Day. The package included an import ban on goods produced in Israeli settlements and restrictions on specific individuals and companies involved in settlement expansion. London stated the actions targeted settlement activity rather than Israel within recognized borders.

Miliband addressed the timing directly in Parliament, insisting that Britain was not attempting to sway the outcome. "I do not want to in any sense interfere in that election," he told lawmakers. "The election is for the Israeli people to make their own decisions about their future." He added that the British quarrel was with the policies of the Netanyahu government, not the Israeli population.

Concerns about the timing emerged among members of Parliament, including shadow foreign secretary Tom Tugendhat. Reports from The Spectator and Globes alleged that British diplomats and intelligence officials warned that pre-election sanctions risked altering the political dynamics. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar reportedly asked Miliband to delay the announcement until after the vote. Some British officials agreed that waiting was preferable, according to the reports.

Sa’ar reacted sharply to the September 8 announcement. He accused the UK of blatant interference in the affairs of a sovereign state and in its electoral process. He called it an unacceptable attempt by a foreign government to exert external influence during an active campaign. Likud members used the sanctions to argue that Israel was facing hostile international pressure.

The British government maintained that the September measures followed earlier sanctions. In June 2025, Britain, alongside Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway, had sanctioned National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Those earlier measures cited alleged incitement of violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. The new restrictions were part of a continuing deterioration in relations rather than a one-off decision.

Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s party, Likud, outperformed Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which pre-election polls had projected to perform well. The election followed years of war and security upheaval, with voters also weighing the future of haredi military-service exemptions and the cost of living. High turnout and the specific seat counts do not isolate the impact of the sanctions from other domestic issues.

The British government stated that its goal is to restrict economic activity supporting settlement expansion and preserve the possibility of a two-state solution. Success will be measured by whether the restrictions are implemented and affect settlement calculations. The current electoral figures do not prove that the sanctions changed the final seat count or voter behavior.