Trump Weighs Next Moves in Eight-Month Iran War After GOP Midterm Loss
Polling shows 60% of voters view the conflict as a mistake, but the President says he would repeat the decision regardless of the election results.
By Sarah Reynolds ·
Six in ten U.S. voters believe the decision to go to war with Iran was wrong, according to an AP Voter Poll surveying more than 100,000 people. This sentiment contributed to a resounding Democratic victory in the midterm elections held on Tuesday, a result that now forces President Donald Trump to determine his next steps in the eight-month-old conflict.
The war has driven up gasoline prices and caused tens of billions of dollars in damage across the region. Trump acknowledged the political cost on Wednesday, agreeing with Vice President JD Vance that the conflict was a factor in the Republican loss. Trump said, "It’s largely true because it drove gasoline up a little bit," but maintained that he would launch the conflict again if given the chance.
Vance, who had been skeptical of the war before supporting it, was more direct in a social media post. "The reason we lost," Vance wrote, "is the war." The vice president, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, initially blamed Republican candidates for the defeat before shifting focus to the military campaign.
The conflict has expanded beyond the initial strikes. Oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. Navy escorts, but fighting has spread to the Red Sea. Iran-backed Houthi rebels are attacking Yemeni civilians and Saudi infrastructure, worsening the humanitarian crisis in the region. A senior Yemeni government official urged Washington to avoid hasty decisions, noting that the threat from Iran and its proxies did not change with the U.S. election.
Analysts see several options for the administration. Brian Haggerty, a former CIA analyst, suggested Trump might feel less politically restrained now that the election is over. David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state, outlined possibilities including maintaining the current naval blockade or striking the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility. Schenker also noted that a limited "fig leaf agreement" could restore navigation rights and offer sanctions relief while delaying further nuclear talks.
Markets reacted to the election by lowering oil prices. Brent crude fell below $95 on Wednesday, touching its lowest level in two months. This drop suggests investors do not expect major new strikes immediately. However, Bradley Bowman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies warned that Iran controls its own actions. He noted that even if the U.S. stops throwing punches, the Islamic Republic may continue to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Regional leaders have been monitoring Trump’s statements for clues. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump over the weekend to press for renewed strikes, but the President did not commit to military action. Three Middle Eastern government officials said the administration signaled that Iran’s influence would diminish after the elections. A fourth official said the election results provided some optimism for mediators seeking a resolution.
The AP Voter Poll found that the cost of living and government corruption were bigger drivers for voters than the war itself. Only about one-third of voters said the Iran conflict was crucial to their congressional vote. Nevertheless, nearly all voters who supported Democratic House candidates said the war was the wrong decision, while eight in ten who backed Republicans said it was the right one. Trump concluded his assessment by stating, "I can tell you that as far as that war is concerned, I would have done nothing different."
