Netanyahu faces Eisenkot in vote that tests Iran strategy

Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday for the first general election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. The vote determines who will lead the country's response to a regional security crisis that escalated into a war with Iran. Incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is running against Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff and leader of the centrist party Yashar.

President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed Netanyahu, calling him a warrior prime minister in an online post. Trump warned that if Israel chooses a different leader, the United States may have to handle the Iran conflict on its own. He stated, 'If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.'

Despite the public support, reports suggest tensions exist between the two governments. The Financial Times reported that the Israeli military planned new attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure around October 10. Trump opposed this escalation ahead of the US midterm elections on November 3. The Jerusalem Post later disputed this account, noting the army had no specific directive for such an operation.

Security experts argue that the election outcome may not drastically alter Israel's approach to Tehran. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said differences between left, right, and center factions on the nuclear threat are minor. He told Deutsche Welle that any military escalation depends more on the US president's decision than on the identity of the Israeli prime minister. Zimmt does not expect dramatic changes in policy regardless of the government's composition.

Danny Citrinovitch, a senior fellow at the same institute, agreed that fundamental changes are unlikely. Even if Netanyahu leaves office, Citrinovitch noted that his influence and the policies established over the last few years will remain. He added that returning to the nuclear deal currently has no place in Israel's political arena.

The shift in consensus traces back to the 2023 attack. Navid Toobian of the Middle East Media Research Institute explained that before the strike, many believed Israel should manage the Islamic Republic in a limited way. The attack by Iran-allied Hamas demonstrated that Tehran spares no effort to strike Israel. This event intensified fears among Israeli society that the current rulers in Iran represent a historical threat.

Damon Golriz, a researcher at the Hague Institute for Geopolitics, outlined three vectors of current US and Israeli policy. These include the removal of regime leaders, the collapse of industrial infrastructure, and the orchestration of civil war to dismember the country. He noted that the US and Israel are not the only players, as Iranian officials have prepared plans for retaliatory strikes. These plans include targeting undersea fiber-optic cables and data centers in the region.

Golriz pointed to a diplomatic opportunity that emerged six months ago in Islamabad. At that time, the presidents of Iran and the United States signed a framework agreeing that Tehran would not initiate war against Israel. Golriz described this as a potential beginning for ending anti-Israel slogans. Although that window closed quickly, he believes the provisions of the Islamabad Memorandum remain a strategic step toward lasting peace.