Senate control: 13 races decide who leads Congress in 2027

Voters in Bellingham, Marysville, and Lake Stevens are heading to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, to cast ballots in the midterm election. According to Ballotpedia, Washington state does not have a U.S. Senate or governor race on the ballot this year. Instead, residents are choosing all of the state’s U.S. House representatives, state legislative officials, and state Supreme Court judges. The state also has ballot measures, including Initiative 1 regarding public education governance and Initiative 645 regarding income taxes. Polls in Washington close at 8 p.m., and the state conducts its elections largely by mail. Anyone in line when polls close is entitled to vote, per USA.gov.

Beyond the Pacific Northwest, the national picture is focused on the U.S. Senate. Thirty-five of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs, consisting of 33 regular elections and two special elections for the remainder of terms held by Marco Rubio in Florida and JD Vance in Ohio. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 45, plus two independents who caucus with Democrats. For Democrats to take majority control of the Senate, they need a net gain of four seats. Republicans can afford to lose only two seats to maintain their majority. Eleven senators are not running again, including four Democrats and seven Republicans, which creates open seats in several key states.

Ballotpedia identifies 13 races as battlegrounds where the outcome is uncertain. These include seats in Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. The ratings for these races vary. Maine is rated a toss-up by all four major election tracking services. Iowa is rated a toss-up or tilt Republican. Kansas is rated a toss-up to lean Republican. Alaska, Michigan, and Georgia are rated as toss-up to lean or likely Democratic. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff is running against Rep. Mike Collins. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Sen. Jon Husted. In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing Democrat James Talarico.

In other competitive states, the matchups are also high profile. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper is running against former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers is running against Abdul El-Sayed. In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas is facing former Sen. John E. Sununu. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins is running against former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The Associated Press notes that economic strain and tariffs have made the Maine race particularly competitive. In Alaska, the Trump administration has filed a lawsuit related to the certification of the Senate result, adding a layer of legal complexity to that contest.

The Associated Press describes this election as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term. Voters are struggling with high prices and are angry over an unpopular war with Iran. AP-NORC polling indicates that 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s job performance, while 25 percent approve of his handling of the economy. About seven in 10 Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction, with most blaming the president for high prices. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote of four years ago in many closely watched states.

Republicans are bracing for the possibility of losing the House while fighting to hold the Senate. The AP notes that one or two seats could tip either chamber. Democrats are described as cautiously optimistic. President Trump held dozens of rallies to support his party, ending his schedule Sunday in Salina, Kansas, where he asked voters to pretend he was on the ballot. His rallies included stops in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. Many Republican candidates kept their distance from the president during the final stretch, according to the AP.

Money has played a significant role in this cycle, with the 2026 elections likely to be the most expensive in history. Republican committees outraised and outspent Democratic committees, helped by Trump-affiliated groups and Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats outraised their opponents. AP analysis of AdImpact data shows that 88.1 percent of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024. This included more than $850 million in states where he won by 10 points or more. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters stated that everything depends on turnout. DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene said the American people are angry and want change.

Legal and administrative issues are also in the spotlight. A federal judge temporarily barred the Trump administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting on Monday. Critics argue this risks disenfranchising eligible voters and infringes on state authority. Another judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that California election officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens. The U.S. Postal Service added hours and staff to ensure mail ballots are counted on time. Wall Street is watching the results closely, as Reuters notes that outcomes could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations.

If Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries would be the first Black speaker and has outlined a 100-day agenda focusing on the cost of living and oversight. A strong Democratic night would also boost potential 2028 candidates such as Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans tried to beat the typical midterm pattern, where a president’s party almost always loses seats, by using new redistricting maps. However, new districts in states like Florida may not vote as drawn. The results will determine who controls Congress for the final two years of Trump’s term.