Israel Heads to Polls With No Majority

Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition coalition compete for control of the Israeli government in Tuesday's legislative elections. This is the first national vote since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza. The result will determine the direction of a state facing international pressure and deep domestic division.

Netanyahu leads a right-wing alliance including his Likud party, the far-right Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. Ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism also join this bloc. The opposition groups four Jewish-led movements, including the Yashar party of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and the Together alliance. Yair Lapid, a former prime minister, has joined the opposition as its leader.

A party must clear a 3.25 percent threshold to enter the 120-seat Knesset. The last public polls before Friday's publication ban projected that neither side would reach the 61 seats required for a majority. A survey by public broadcaster KAN gave the opposition 52 seats and Netanyahu's bloc 50. The remaining seats were projected for unaffiliated groups, including the Arab-majority Ra'am and Joint List parties.

Both major blocs have ruled out partnering with Arab-led parties for now. This stance could lead to a minority government or a second election if coalition talks fail. Voters are demanding accountability for security failures leading up to the 2023 attacks. Many are also angry over the ultra-Orthodox military exemption and Netanyahu's judicial reform plans.

Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said secular and liberal opposition factions view this vote as the last chance to save Israeli democracy. Israel's global standing has slipped, with several allies sanctioning its West Bank settlements. Dozens of envoys walked out when Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly on September 24.

Netanyahu has served as prime minister for more than 15 of the last 17 years. He faces corruption charges he has fought since 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes. A defeat would leave him more exposed in his trial, which could result in a prison sentence if he is convicted. His loss could also affect the prospects of an inquiry into the 2023 attacks.

About 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote, including roughly 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polling suggests turnout in that community could reach 60 percent. At that rate, Arab parties could win up to 15 seats. The Supreme Court recently reversed a decision to bar the Joint List and Ra'am, though it forced Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.